tempo-free stats reward efficiency. BUT, if we continue to treat games as statistical exercises, it should be no surprise that wisconsin, as a slow, slow team generally underperforms in W-L compared to their kenpom rating. Each game is a smaller sample of possessions for Wisconsin, thus meaning more randomness in W-L binary outcome.
It’d be awesome if the wizards at hoyaprospectus would test that theory: do teams with lower tempos have more divergent outcomes from expectations.
Is terrible before you get sufficient data, especially for our of conference foes (read: cupcakes). (Some statisticians would disagree with me on that point).
For instance, the notion that the baskets scored and baskets allowed are independent is weakly false— more and more accurate as you play more games.
What I am saying is that the early season kenpom rankings aren’t going to be terribly accurate.
What is gtown's record against the spread this year?
tjm62 - January 3, 2012
Georgetown is 7-1 against the spread this year
But a lot of games did not have spreads. So far the only game we haven’t beaten the spread was against Providence.
hoyasincebirth - January 3, 2012
Need sports gambling lesson
Too lazy to do the homework on the third option (straight up on the moneyline) – anybody feel like educating me?
J-Wall's Mom's Broom - January 3, 2012
bet that g'town will win outright, no point spread.
make less money if you are right (because g’town is the favorite), compared to how much you would make if you gave the points.
if you took ‘quette on the moneyline, you’d make extra money because they are expected to lose.
thejerseytornado - January 3, 2012
if you think the underdog will win outright, take the moneyline
Lord Humongous - January 4, 2012
Thanks to both of you!
J-Wall's Mom's Broom - January 4, 2012
So I guess it's time to start taking Seton Hall seriously?
WarmupEwing - January 3, 2012
Looks real to me
DrTox - January 3, 2012
That.
Plus Uconn is overrated.
hoyasincebirth - January 4, 2012
Prior to the upset
Kenpom had UConn at #28. Quite different from their AP and Coaches poll placement at #8. Just something to consider.
Circus Saximus - January 4, 2012
KenPom had Wisconsin #1
KenPom might be drunk.
CasualHoya - January 4, 2012
Ruthless Teutonic efficiency
on both ends of the court. Fortunately for the world, ruthless Teutonic efficiency is not always a winner in the long run.
HoyaSmacksYa - January 4, 2012
they are crazy Big 10 Homers this year
SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak - January 4, 2012
Kenpom always loves wisconsin
tempo-free stats reward efficiency. BUT, if we continue to treat games as statistical exercises, it should be no surprise that wisconsin, as a slow, slow team generally underperforms in W-L compared to their kenpom rating. Each game is a smaller sample of possessions for Wisconsin, thus meaning more randomness in W-L binary outcome.
It’d be awesome if the wizards at hoyaprospectus would test that theory: do teams with lower tempos have more divergent outcomes from expectations.
god bless the central limit theorem! #nerd
thejerseytornado - January 4, 2012
Pythagorean expectation
Is terrible before you get sufficient data, especially for our of conference foes (read: cupcakes). (Some statisticians would disagree with me on that point).
For instance, the notion that the baskets scored and baskets allowed are independent is weakly false— more and more accurate as you play more games.
What I am saying is that the early season kenpom rankings aren’t going to be terribly accurate.
onceahoya - January 4, 2012
Been screaming watch out for Seton Hall for a while..
Pope has been destroying people this year 20 and 10 and Theodore is like 19 and 5.. Those doods are tough defensively and physical on O…
Big game tonight let’s take it to these guys… Hoyasyaheard
yaboynyp - January 4, 2012
wish they had played tougher against Cuse.
SomebodyBuyAustinaSteak - January 4, 2012
What's the over/under
On minutes before Buzz Williams completely sweats through his shirt?
WarmupEwing - January 4, 2012
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